Abstract fra paperet:
I use the Global Vector Autoregressive model to investigate the spillover effects of emissions, energy, and economic growth between countries, with a time-varying weighting matrix based on trade between countries. The study focuses on countries that experienced a decrease in emissions and how other countires affects and is affected by changes in emissions, energy use, and economic development. The findings suggest that shocks leading to reduced emissions in many countries simultaneously lead to increased emissions in China, supporting the pollution haven hypothesis. An increase in the global oil price affects US and UK emissions negatively but causes a short-term increase in Chinese emissions. The spillover effects for smaller developed countries are much larger than for the US. These differences are found both in the short and long run, indicating that spillover effects between CO2 emissions and related economic variables in individual countries should be investigated. The study also highlights that emission reductions in many countries are partly offset by increases in China and that these effects are different before and after China entered the world economy.
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https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/events/conferences/2023/index.aspx